Economic growth forecast for 2015 and 2016 has gone slightly down to 5.7 percent from 6 percent and 6.2 percent from 6.3 percent respectively. Despite these changes, the country’s economic outlook is still one of the strongest in the region according to the International Monetary Fund or IMF.
“The growth estimate for 2015 was revised down to 5.7 percent from 6 percent, reflecting growth outturns to the third quarter and weaker global growth performance,” Shanaka Jayanath Peiris IMF Resident Representative said Tuesday.
However, IMF’s 2017 projection has remained at 6.5 percent. “Despite the weaker global economic outlook, the Philippine growth forecast for 2016 was only marginally lowered from 6.3 percent to 6.2 percent to reflect the more challenging external environment,” Peiris said. The 2017 outlook for economic growth remains the same at 6.5 percent as reported by the World Economic Outlook (WEO), he added.
The outlook for the Philippine economy is to continue a robust growth. According to Peiris, such strong economic growth expectation is supported by:
- a healthy private domestic demand
- recovery in export growth
- improved public sector expenditure as budget execution continues to recuperate and
- successful construction phase of a number of public private partnerships (PPP)
These latest economic projections by the IMF were included in the World Economic Outlook for January 2016. Based on the report, global growth reached 3.1 percent in 2015 and is expected to go higher at 3.4 percent in 2016 and 3.6 percent in 2017.
Peiris also said that the following risks to the global outlook is the pitfall for the country’s economic growth:
- ongoing adjustments in the global economy,
- a generalized slowdown in the emerging market economies,
- China’s rebalancing,
- lower commodity prices and
- the gradual exit from extraordinary accomodative monetary conditions in the United States
However, the Philippines is less exposed to China given the low trade and financial linkages and stands to benefit from the lower commodity prices, he added.